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Trade policy changes rival geopolitical instability

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Following a year of political elections in numerous countries, including the US presidential election in November, surveyed executives have turned their attention toward changes in trade policy and relationships and other potential policy changes. In the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions, potential trade policy changes rival geopolitical instability—the most-cited disruption to the global economy throughout 2024—as elements that respondents expect will affect the global economy in 2025.1 Transitions of political leadership remain on respondents’ minds, while respondents increasingly anticipate higher unemployment in their countries and are more inclined than in previous quarters to expect interest rates to increase.

Overall sentiment is stable but more cautious than in early 2024
Respondents’ current sentiments about the state of the global economy remain in line with those they expressed in the previous quarter, although the findings suggest growing uncertainty about interest rates and unemployment rates. Respondents continue to be equally likely to report improving or worsening conditions in the global economy, as they were in the September survey—but the share saying conditions have improved is smaller than it was in early 2024.5 Looking ahead to the next six months, respondents continue to be more likely to expect improving than worsening conditions. Forty-four percent expect improvement, a share that has remained largely consistent throughout 2024.

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